Russia's own Pearl Harbour Moment

First things first, I took a long hiatus from my blogging on topics of warfare as I was tied down with personal matters. My return to this forum is because of two conversations that happened regarding warfare in recent times with people I consider at the best novices to this topic. The gist of the conversations are as follows -

Instance 1: We as a country now can take on any enemy in battle, even if the enemy had the upper hand in almost all sectors of military and economy (read superpower), and we will emerge victorious.

Though that would make me happy beyond measure, I believe it to be utopian. On the other hand, the sane logic on taking on a more powerful enemy would be through subversion, subterfuge and sabotage. All these three in right amounts (read below direct confrontation threshold) will work wonders rather than a disastrous war.

Instance 2: Russia is struggling against a much weaker enemy like Ukraine, then in what context can they be considered at the least a regional power much less a superpower.

To those who hold this school of thought, you might feel that your arguments have gained traction since the attack of Ukrainian drones on Russian strategic bomber aviation elements (a indispensable part of their nuclear triad), but I disagree vehemently. Ukraine has immense aid in the form of weapons, intelligence, money, personnel and safe havens in their fight against a country that is practically on their own facing sanctions unprecedented in history (sanctions on North Korea and Iran pale in comparison). So you might ask "what about support from Iran, China and North Korea ?". The intricacies of geopolitics is such that all three of these countries are though trying to look as if aiding Russia implicitly, has their own cards to play in exacting a heavy toll for whatever little aid they are providing. All three countries are trying to leverage Russia's moment of weakness heavily which is very much unlike the support Ukraine is receiving. Russia knows this all too well and also Russia being the pride successor of Soviet Union is unwilling to be pushed around by the newcomers.

So to the ignorant out there, take note, this is not a one-on-one fight, rather this has equivalents in history like that of Vietnam war where Vietcong were aided by Soviet Union and China against US backed forces and we all know how the US ran with their tails tucked behind their legs, or if we go further back we can take the example of battle of Waterloo, where Napoleon's French army was defeated by a combined force from UK, Prussia and other belligerents.

Bottomline - it is always an uphill battle against combined enemy.

And this should be kept in mind by all those who are thirsting for war. In our context, warmongering might make you sound all glorious but when push comes to shove, our enemies will unite and we will be at a disadvantage, as we will have to fight our wars on our own. Don't take my word for it, look to the history of our wars. All our wars, we were under the constant threat of sanctions, embargoes and explicit military interventions by third parties.

In essence, though the Ukrainian strike was a masterpiece operation that will be studied by all the world's military and intelligence services, I believe it to be a tactic aimed at coercing and humiliating Russia at the negotiating table. This is evident as to the limited damage caused, as opposed to the prospect this type of attack had at causing damage to the bomber fleet (Open source intelligence and satellite imagery show damages considerably less than Ukrainian claims of 40 bombers destroyed, rather it shows destruction of approximately one dozen bomber aircrafts and transport aircrafts of varying models, but nonetheless a very painful sting to the Russians and considerable strain on their already stretched thin resources, no doubt). And if the Ukrainians are really are dumb enough to believe that they should have gone berserk and all out on their attack on the enforcers of Russian nuclear triad, well then it would be a fools die-hard charge, since significant damage to Russia's nuclear triad is considered an existential threat by the Russian federation, and their recently modified nuclear doctrine allows for a full scale pre-emptive nuclear strike on all parties complicit in the attack. Folks in simple words- it will lead to a nuclear war.

What intrigues and fascinates me is the uncanny silence and lack of action from the Russians. The retaliation would be also a one to watch for. (Russians never forgive, ask Alexander Litvinenko and Sergei Skripal).